**OPEC Cuts Supply Forecast for Non-Member Producers Amid Weak Prices and Investment Slowdown**
The global oil market has sent out a new signal: the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) trimmed its 2025 crude supply growth forecast for non-OPEC+ producers in its latest monthly report released on May 14. The move reflects industry concerns over weak oil prices and tighter capital spending, both of which could hinder future production expansion. At the same time, slower supply growth outside the OPEC+ alliance could ease the group’s efforts to balance the market.
According to the report, key non-OPEC+ producers—namely the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana—are now expected to raise output by just 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, a 100,000 bpd cut from last month’s forecast. U.S. shale, in particular, is feeling the impact; expected growth has been reduced from 400,000 bpd to 300,000 bpd, a sign that current price levels are slowing drilling activity.
On the investment front, upstream spending by non-OPEC+ countries is projected to edge up to $299 billion in 2024, but dip by around 5% in 2025. While oil majors continue to pursue technological improvements and cost efficiencies, tightened budgets are limiting medium-term production capacity expansion.
From a market balance perspective, OPEC sees this slowdown in non-OPEC+ supply growth as a positive development—it could make it easier for them to manage oversupply concerns. Since adopting voluntary output cuts in 2022, the alliance has collectively trimmed production by 5.8 million bpd. Yet rising U.S. output and global competition have challenged OPEC+ efforts to sustain price stability. Currently, Brent crude prices hover near $66 per barrel, notably below the fiscal breakeven point for many producers.
Interestingly, OPEC+ announced plans in early April to gradually add back 411,000 bpd to the market starting in May. The move appears to be a strategic play to reclaim market share, amid steady demand and limited supply growth from rivals.
On the demand side, OPEC maintained its forecast for 2025 global oil demand growth at 1.3 million bpd. The recovery in air travel, coupled with expanding industrial activity in major non-OECD markets like China and India, are expected to support consumption. Easing U.S.-China trade tensions also play a role. Notably, OECD commercial crude inventories dropped to 1.322 billion barrels in March, roughly 139 million barrels below the 2015–2019 average for the same period—indicating healthy fundamentals.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ production edged slightly lower in April by 106,000 bpd to 40.92 million bpd. Kazakhstan, despite committing to a 41,000 bpd cut, produced 1.823 million bpd—exceeding its quota by 413,000 bpd—highlighting the ongoing challenge of compliance among some member nations.
Looking ahead, all eyes are on the next OPEC+ ministerial meeting set for June 1, where members may reconsider the current pace of output hikes. With the slowdown in non-OPEC+ supply and peak summer driving season approaching, many analysts believe oil prices could find near-term support. However, uncertainty about U.S. strategic reserve policy and geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain key wild cards for the market.
