On May 15, 2025, global oil markets experienced sharp volatility after former U.S. President Donald Trump, during a visit to the Middle East, revealed that the U.S. and Iran are “close to reaching a nuclear agreement.” The announcement triggered an immediate market response, sending international oil prices down more than 3% in a single day. Brent crude briefly fell below $64 per barrel, marking its steepest one-day decline in nearly three months.
Markets interpreted the news as a sign that U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil might soon be eased, potentially bringing a major supplier back online. If exports resume, Iran could add between 500,000 to 1 million barrels per day to the global supply, putting downward pressure on prices. Iran currently produces around 3 million barrels daily, and any additional output would challenge the already delicate balance in the market.
Energy stocks mirrored the price drop. European energy shares fell nearly 2%, while U.S. shale producers also saw declines. Investors are concerned that increased Iranian exports could erode the competitive edge of American shale producers. OPEC+ previously signaled a gradual production increase, but with current prices now dipping below breakeven levels for many Middle Eastern producers, Saudi Arabia stated it would reassess its strategy based on summer demand and global interest rate trends.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an unexpected crude inventory build of 3.5 million barrels last week—sharply higher than the market’s projection of a 1 million barrel draw. This raises concerns that demand growth may be slowing. However, gasoline and distillate inventories declined, suggesting that transportation and summer travel demand remain intact.
On the technical front, analysts are closely watching Brent crude’s next support level around $62. A break below that could trigger additional algorithmic selling. Investors are now looking ahead to the next OPEC+ ministerial meeting on May 20, where member countries will discuss potential supply adjustments. Developments in the U.S.-Iran negotiations will also remain a key focus.
While oil prices have moved sharply on headline risk, it’s worth noting that the agreement has not yet been finalized, and questions remain about Iran’s ability to restore production quickly. The market is in a wait-and-see mode, and amid mixed signals, investors are advised to stay flexible and reassess strategies as new information emerges.
