Insightz

Former President Trump ramped up pressure on the Federal Reserve, sparking concerns over the central bank’s independence in shaping monetary policy. In response, the U.S. dollar index plunged to a three-year low. The weakening dollar provided a strong boost to tech stocks and gold prices, leading to broad gains across risk assets. Investors should keep a close eye on U.S. economic data and policy developments, and consider rebalancing their portfolios accordingly.

In June, U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped to 93.0—the lowest level in recent years—highlighting growing concerns about the economy and job market. Uncertainty surrounding trade policies and declining expectations are putting pressure on consumer sentiment, leading to more cautious spending behavior. This shift could pose headwinds for the stock market and economic growth in the second half of the year. Investors should closely monitor these developments for potential risks and opportunities.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s latest testimony to Congress indicates that the central bank is adopting a wait-and-see approach on interest rates, with no immediate plans to cut. Persistent inflation pressures and evolving trade tensions between the U.S. and China have led the Fed to stick with its data-driven strategy, allowing for flexibility as economic conditions unfold. Investors are now eyeing September as the earliest window for any potential policy shift.

Trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe are heating up, as former President Trump threatens to impose tariffs of up to 50% on European goods. In response, the European Union is preparing retaliatory tariffs targeting key American exports such as Boeing aircraft and soybeans. With the July 9 negotiation deadline fast approaching, global markets are on edge. Investors are closely watching the situation, as heightened trade disputes could rattle the Hong Kong stock market and weigh on the broader global economy.

A growing divide is emerging within the Federal Reserve as Governor Michelle Bowman signals support for a potential rate cut in July—marking a sharp contrast to Chair Jerome Powell’s more cautious stance. With inflation cooling and the labor market showing signs of weakening, investor expectations for an earlier rate cut are building. Interest rate futures now suggest there’s over a 60% chance of a move as soon as September. All eyes are now on the July FOMC meeting, which could play a pivotal role in shaping global capital flows and influencing Hong Kong dollar interest rate trends.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that Israel and Iran have reached a preliminary ceasefire agreement, set to take effect in phases starting at midnight on Monday. The announcement has drawn global attention, coming just two days after a joint U.S.-Israel airstrike targeted Iranian nuclear facilities. While the news offers a glimpse of hope for peace in the region, experts caution that the next 24 hours will be critical in determining whether the ceasefire marks the true end of hostilities or merely a temporary pause before further escalation.