U.S. retail sales rose by 0.6% month-over-month in June 2025, beating market expectations and signaling strong consumer resilience. Despite persistent inflation and economic uncertainty, American households continue to spend on essentials and premium brands. Brick-and-mortar retail and the food service industry are showing signs of recovery, reflecting a shift toward a post-pandemic spending normal. Going forward, interest rates and consumer confidence will remain key factors influencing economic momentum.
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Trump’s Policies Make a Comeback, Triggering Market Volatility and New Investment Opportunities
As Trump-era policies reemerge, global markets are entering a new phase of uncertainty—and potential upside. From a renewed trade war and aggressive tax reforms to shifting geopolitical alliances and industrial realignments, six key trends are beginning to shape the investment landscape. In this analysis, we break down the resurgence of the “Trump Trade” and reveal strategic insights to help investors stay ahead of the curve, protect their portfolios, and uncover growth opportunities amid the turbulence.
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The Japanese yen continues to weaken against the US dollar, weighed down by disappointing export data and expectations of ongoing monetary easing by the Bank of Japan. The USD/JPY pair has broken above the 148.85 level, with technical indicators pointing to further upside potential—possibly testing the 150 or even 151 mark. Unless there are signs of an economic rebound, the dollar’s strength is likely to persist. Investors should closely monitor yen fluctuations and remain aware of potential currency-related risks.
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U.S. inflation data for June came in as expected, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.7% year-over-year. Core inflation—a measure that excludes food and energy—came in slightly below market forecasts. However, a new round of tariffs could drive up the cost of goods, adding pressure to inflation. The Federal Reserve is closely watching for potential impacts on the broader economy, while investors are paying close attention to how companies plan to respond in their upcoming earnings reports.
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China’s economy grew by 1.1% in the second quarter of 2025, slightly outpacing market expectations. This suggests that recent efforts to stabilize growth are beginning to show results. However, momentum remains fragile amid sluggish domestic demand, a continuing slump in real estate investment, and persistent external risks. Whether policymakers step up support will be a key factor in determining the economy’s trajectory going forward.
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The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates again in October, drawing renewed attention from global markets. A former chief economist noted that with reduced trade uncertainty and rising inflation, the likelihood of another rate hike has increased. Japan’s current interest rate sits at 0.5%, the highest level since 2008. A surge in core consumer prices, along with climbing rice and oil costs, is putting additional pressure on policymakers. Investors should closely watch the central bank’s meetings in July and October, as these will be pivotal in shaping the future direction of Japan’s interest rate strategy.