Insightz

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has stood firm on maintaining the central bank’s independence despite growing political pressure, emphasizing that any decision to cut interest rates will be driven by economic data—not the upcoming election cycle. With core inflation still running above the Fed’s target, market expectations now suggest a potential rate cut may not come until September at the earliest. Investors should closely watch how U.S. interest rate movements could impact Hong Kong dollar rates, the local property market, and cross-border capital flows.

The euro has seen increased volatility against the US dollar recently, drawing attention to the key support level at 1.1670. With shifting policy dynamics and trade developments between the EU and the US, a short-term technical rebound is possible. Key resistance levels are now at 1.1765 and 1.1800. If Europe’s economic fundamentals remain stable, the euro could potentially test the 1.2000 mark by year-end. Forex traders should closely monitor central bank policies and market sentiment in both regions to stay ahead of currency market trends.

The British pound is approaching a pivotal week, with markets closely watching the UK’s latest GDP, retail sales, and inflation reports. A cooling job market and weakening business confidence, coupled with a strengthening US dollar, have put short-term pressure on the pound. If upcoming economic data continues to disappoint, the Bank of England may be forced to consider cutting interest rates sooner than expected—heightening currency volatility. Investors should stay alert to market trends and central bank signals, and position themselves with caution.

The euro rebounded against the U.S. dollar at the key technical support level of 1.1686, forming a bullish flag pattern—a signal that the upward trend could continue. A decisive break above 1.1805 may open the door for a move toward the 1.1965 resistance level. However, ongoing U.S.-EU tariff negotiations and upcoming U.S. economic data remain critical factors that could sway the market. Traders should keep a close eye on these developments.

After a six-year hiatus, Argentina has resumed soybean meal exports to China—a move that signals a renewed chapter in global agricultural trade. With U.S.-China trade tensions continuing to rise, China is actively looking to diversify its import sources, and Argentina has emerged as a key supplier. Thanks to its strategic logistics and competitive pricing, Argentina is well-positioned to erode the dominance of U.S. agricultural products in the Chinese market. This shift not only reshapes the global supply chain but also opens fresh opportunities for investors looking to capitalize on changing agricultural trade flows.

Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month target for the S&P 500 to 6,900, projecting an 11% potential return. The investment bank has turned more bullish on U.S. equities, citing the possibility of faster interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and strong fundamentals in the tech sector. Investors are advised to keep a close eye on high-growth areas such as artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing. However, it’s also important to remain cautious of ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and rising corporate cost pressures, which could weigh on future market performance.