On Monday, June 23, the Australian dollar (AUD) staged a rebound against the U.S. dollar (USD), climbing back above the 0.6400 level and temporarily shaking off its recent downtrend. The shift came amid changing market sentiment following a U.S. military strike on Iran and the release of fresh American economic data. These events altered capital flows and investor risk preferences, providing the Aussie with some support.
Last week, rising geopolitical tensions initially pushed investors toward safe-haven assets like the USD, dragging down risk-sensitive currencies—including the AUD. However, as fears around the Middle East began to ease and market data painted a more nuanced picture, risk appetite cautiously returned. This helped the AUD bounce back from its recent lows.
As of June 23, AUD/USD was trading around 0.6449. Technically speaking, the pair remains within a downward trend channel, with short-term moving averages still in bearish alignment. That said, the recent recovery from monthly lows sets the stage for a potential test of short-term resistance around the 0.6475 level, with further upside possible toward 0.6515. A successful break above these levels could open the door for a move toward 0.6875. On the flip side, if the pair slides back below 0.6345, the bearish outlook could intensify, potentially testing 0.6315 or lower.
On the macro front, recent U.S. economic data provided mixed signals. While manufacturing activity came in slightly below expectations, the services sector continued to expand, suggesting the economy remains relatively resilient despite divergent sector performance. This tempered the dollar’s recent momentum, shifting some capital toward higher-yielding and commodity-linked currencies like the AUD, offering it short-term support.
Data out of Europe and the UK also painted a mixed picture. In the eurozone, manufacturing overall remained stable—Germany showed signs of renewed growth, while France continued to lag. The UK’s composite PMI slightly beat expectations, though the pound still struggled, reflecting cautious investor sentiment surrounding the European and British outlooks.
On the geopolitical front, fears sparked by the U.S. military move against Iran briefly sent markets into risk-off mode. However, with tensions not escalating further, market anxiety subsided, allowing risk assets like the AUD to recover.
Looking ahead, AUD/USD is likely to remain range-bound in the short term. Key factors to watch include upcoming U.S. economic releases, signals from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, and broader geopolitical developments. A renewed flight to safety could weigh on the Aussie again, while improving sentiment could lead to another push toward resistance levels.
Key short-term support sits at 0.6345. Holding above that level could keep the rebound in play. On the resistance side, watch the 0.6475–0.6515 zone. Whether the pair can break through this range may determine its next move. For traders keeping an eye on the Aussie, the coming days will be shaped by headlines—both economic and geopolitical.
